Numeraire DCF Valuator

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Where facts conquer fiction. Dig deep for facts. Dig deeper for value.

 
 

Introduction

 

DCF Valuator is designed for the valuation of common stocks and other investment assets using models based on intrinsic value estimated with discounted expected cash returns from either cash dividends or free cash flow to the investment asset being valued, using text, tabular and graphical presentation of results.

 

What is any particular common stock worth?

 

 

Price is not value, pricing is not valuation, and pricing models are not valuation models. Pricing models depend on historical market prices. Valuation models are independent of market prices and markets. The conventional academic capital asset pricing model has one factor, the market beta coefficient. Models that include market beta are pricing models, not valuation models. This is not merely a matter of semantics. The difference between price and value is the raison d'Ítre of investment valuation independent of market pricing.

 

Technically speaking, pricing models are statistical or econometric stochastic models that return group-average estimates of efficient market price. In contrast, valuation models, whether discounted cash flow (DCF) net present value (NPV) or the equivalent economic value added (EVA), are appraisal-type models that return unique estimates of fair or intrinsic value. A valuation model that uses Monte Carlo simulation returns stochastic or probabilistic range-and-mean estimates instead of deterministic single-point estimates, but the underlying model is not a statistical model.

Find out what a stock or other investment is worth by choosing an appropriate model to estimate its intrinsic value using your input assumptions. Consider the estimated value, appraised value, and other
facets of investment value to better determine a safety margin and price at which to consider buying.

The discounted cash flow valuation models and return models serve as a qualitative aid to decision making (buy, sell, hold or pass) rather than as a precise measure of intrinsic investment value or rate of return.

 

Enter the PORTAL when you are ready to tour or use the DCF Valuator, and choose one of the models.

 

Model Type

Number of Projected Stages

(Value or Return)

0

1

2

Intrinsic Value - Point

(Value 0 Point)

Value 1 Point

Value 2 Point

 

Value S-Curve

Value 1 Growth

n/a

Intrinsic Value - Range

n/a

Value 1 Range

Value 2 Range

Rate of Return - Point

n/a

Return 1 Point

Return 2 Point

Note: Each model produces either a Point estimate or a Range and Mean estimate.

 

Simple financial analysis combined with solid assessment of value factors can lead to sound appraisal of multi-faceted fair value of any investment asset. In contrast, complex financial analysis with weak assessment of value factors can lead to unsound appraisal of fair value. The critical input is the judgment of the analyst-assessor-appraiser: either it is solid in the sense of deep, detailed, dynamic and investment-asset-specific (multifaceted, flexible, customized and unique), or it is weak in the sense of shallow, superficial, static and form-specific (single-faceted, rigid, standardized and repetitive).


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